Gulf oil exports rebound despite Iranian blockade on Hormuz

Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to pre-war levels, according to a tracking platform, as more vessels prove willing to make the risky transit under US escort despite Iran's efforts to choke the waterway.

Before the Middle East war, around a fifth of the hydrocarbons consumed worldwide passed through the strategic chokepoint, which has become a major source of friction between Tehran and Washington.

Iran still claims control over the strait, and ships without its authorisation risk coming under attack, but more and more are making it out, and alternative routes meant to bypass the waterway are operating at full capacity.

Despite the rebound, experts stressed that the situation was far from normal, and Iran remains deprived of a large share of its own exports by a US counterblockade of its ports.

According to preliminary data from the commodity-tracking platform Kpler, non-Iranian crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, from Gulf countries and Iraq, averaged 13.5 million barrels per day between September 22 and 28 -- equivalent to pre-war levels.

"There are more players ready to try to get out of the Strait of Hormuz and succeed," TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne told investors on Monday.

Saudi Arabia is benefiting from the reactivation of its East-West pipeline, which links the kingdom's main oil fields in the east to its Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, allowing it to bypass Hormuz.

Shut down on September 11 after being hit by strikes launched from Iraq, the pipeline resumed operations on September 22, according to Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler.

Based on data from the platform on Wednesday, at least 10 tankers left Yanbu loaded with crude over the weekend.

On Sunday, 9.5 million barrels were exported from the terminal area, a volume unseen since the start of the conflict.

The United Arab Emirates are also able to bypass the Hormuz thanks to their pipeline linking Abu Dhabi's fields to Fujairah, a terminal just outside the strait on the Gulf of Oman.

- 'Not sustainable' -

The resumption of traffic comes as negotiations have restarted between Washington and Tehran, focused on restoring freedom of navigation in the strait.

Iran has proposed to reopen it in exchange for the unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad, the lifting of sanctions on its oil sector and an end to the US naval blockade, among other conditions.

Washington has rejected the plan, but indirect talks are ongoing.

The current situation provides some respite for the oil monarchies, but it is not a lasting solution, said Sanam Vakil of the UK-based think tank Chatham House.

"The Gulf states all recognise that the current arrangement is not sustainable. They depend on the United States to secure the maritime routes and keep exports flowing but they also know that military protection is not a substitute for a political understanding with Tehran," she told AFP.

"The regional trajectory still points toward greater escalation rather than a durable status quo, so higher exports today should not be mistaken for a new normal."

In a sign of persistent market concerns, international benchmark Brent remains above $100 a barrel.

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz -- all goods combined -- remains far below its pre-war level, and ships continue to face risks when transiting.

British maritime agency UKMTO said unknown projectiles struck three ships in the waterway on Tuesday.

Last week, an attack on a cargo ship there killed an Indian sailor, according to Omani and Indian authorities.

And another sticking point has emerged.

The Iran-backed Houthis launched a lightning offensive that saw them seize Yemen's entire Red Sea coast, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a vital shipping lane.

The violence has disrupted exports from Saudi Arabia, the world's leading supplier of crude oil, as well as maritime traffic.

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TotalEnergies